Wood Mackenzie, a leading energy consultancy, forecasts a significant decline in global gasoline demand this year, driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in key markets such as the U.S. and China, as quoted by Reuters.
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie attribute this decline to the growing penetration of EVs, with Chinese demand expected to grow by only 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year due to higher EV uptake.
In China, EV sales are projected to rise by 24% in 2024, reaching a total of 11 million vehicles. This marks a slowdown from the 36% increase seen last year, when sales reached 7.7 million cars.
Similarly, the growth rate in the U.S. EV market is modest, with first-quarter sales showing only a 2% increase year-on-year, totaling 102,000 vehicles. However, Wood Mackenzie anticipates a potential acceleration in EV sales throughout the remainder of the year.
Wood Mackenzie expects global gasoline demand to increase by 340,000 bpd in 2024, reaching a total of 26.5 million bpd. This growth rate is approximately half of last year’s, reflecting China’s nearing peak in transport sector fuel demand and the United States surpassing that peak.
Echoing Wood Mackenzie’s sentiments, Rystad Energy also anticipates a substantial slowdown in gasoline demand growth this year compared to the post-pandemic recovery-driven growth observed last year, which amounted to 700,000 bpd.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also predicted that Chinese gasoline demand will peak this year at around 3.7 million bpd, further emphasizing the shifting dynamics in the global gasoline market amid the rise of EVs.
