OPEC does not foresee a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast, projecting demand to grow to 116 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, with potential for even higher demand.
This contrasts sharply with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent report, which predicts oil demand will peak by 2029 and stabilize around 106 million bpd towards the decade’s end.
Hathaim Al Ghais, OPEC’s Secretary General, criticized the IEA report in Energy Aspects, calling it “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale”
OPEC+—which includes OPEC led by Saudi Arabia and allies like Russia—has implemented significant output cuts since late 2022 to stabilize the market.
The group is cutting a total of 5.86 million bpd, about 5.7% of global demand. This includes a 3.66 million bpd cut extended until the end of 2025 and a 2.2 million bpd cut to be gradually phased out starting October.
The IEA, as reported by Energy Afrique on Thursday, recently advanced its forecast for peak oil demand to 2029, previously expected by 2030. The agency predicts oil demand will start to decline in 2030 while the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries increase supply.
Al Ghais disputed the IEA’s projections, citing past inaccuracies such as the IEA’s claims that gasoline demand peaked in 2019 and coal demand peaked in 2014.
He emphasized that OPEC forecasts oil demand growth of 4 million bpd over 2024 and 2025, with other forecasters predicting an increase of over 3 million bpd. Even the IEA anticipates a 2 million bpd growth during this period, though it predicts growth will sharply decline to nearly zero by 2030.
“This is an unrealistic scenario, one that would negatively impact economies worldwide. It is simply a continuation of the IEA’s anti-oil narrative,” Al Ghais asserted.
