May 21, 2024
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IEA Trims 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Widens Gap with OPEC

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth on Wednesday, widening the gap with OPEC over the global oil demand outlook for the year.

The Paris-based energy watchdog reduced its growth projection for 2024 by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, primarily attributing the adjustment to weak demand in developed OECD nations.

In contrast, OPEC maintained its expectation of a 2.25 million bpd increase in world oil demand for 2024, highlighting a significant disparity between the two organizations’ forecasts.

This discrepancy partly stems from differing perspectives on the pace of the global transition to cleaner fuels.

The IEA’s monthly oil report pointed to sluggish industrial activity and a mild winter affecting gasoil consumption, particularly in Europe, where dwindling diesel car sales have already impacted consumption.

“Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction,” the IEA said.

While the IEA’s 2025 oil growth forecast of 1.2 million bpd is slightly higher than its previous estimate, it remains marginally above the projection for 2024.

In contrast, OPEC anticipates oil demand growth of 1.85 million bpd for the following year.

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