British Oil & Gas giant BP Plc has forecasted that global oil demand will peak next year, while wind and solar capacity will continue to expand rapidly. In the latest edition of its annual Energy Outlook, BP has published a comprehensive study of the global energy system’s evolution up to 2050.
BP’s predictions are based on two primary scenarios: the Current Trajectory and Net Zero, OilPrice.com reports. The Current Trajectory scenario considers existing climate policies and carbon reduction commitments, whereas the Net Zero scenario assumes adherence to the 2015 Paris climate agreement, aiming for a 95% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.
According to BP, oil demand will peak by 2025 at approximately 102 million barrels per day (bpd) in both scenarios. The subsequent rate of decline will largely depend on the reduction in oil use for road transport. Under the Current Trajectory, BP anticipates a gradual decline in oil consumption, reaching around 75 million bpd by 2050. In contrast, the Net Zero scenario projects a steeper decline, with demand falling to just 25-30 million bpd by 2050.
In terms of overall energy demand, the Current Trajectory scenario predicts that primary energy demand will rise until the mid-2030s before levelling off. This plateau is expected due to continuing energy consumption growth in emerging economies, excluding China, being offset by declines in developed economies and eventually in China. Under this scenario, global energy demand in 2050 will be only 5% higher than in 2022.
Conversely, the Net Zero scenario anticipates energy demand peaking in the middle of the current decade, followed by a significant decline. BP predicts that by 2050, energy demand will be around 25% lower than in 2022 under this scenario.
BP’s predictions are consistent with those made by Bloomberg last year, which estimated that global demand for road fuel would peak in 2027 at 49 million barrels per day. This peak is attributed to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, improvements in fuel efficiency, and the rise of shared mobility.
