Asia’s crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in two years in July, driven by weak demand in the region’s top importers, China and India.
According to data from LSEG Oil Research, the region imported a total of 24.88 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, a 6.1% decline from the previous month and the lowest since July 2022.
For the first seven months of 2024, Asia’s average imports were 26.78 million bpd, down by 340,000 bpd compared to the same period in 2023.
This decrease challenges the optimistic growth forecasts for the region’s oil demand made by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which predicted a rise in global oil demand by 2.25 million bpd in 2024.
OPEC’s forecast included an expected increase of 760,000 bpd in China, 230,000 bpd in India, and an additional 350,000 bpd for the rest of Asia.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) offered a more conservative estimate, forecasting global oil demand growth at 970,000 bpd. The IEA expects China to account for approximately 40% of this increase, translating to about 388,000 bpd.
However, actual import figures appear to be falling short of these forecasts.
Preliminary data suggest that China’s imports averaged 10.53 million bpd in July, leading to an average of 10.98 million bpd for the first seven months of the year.
This figure represents a decline of 240,000 bpd, or approximately 2.1%, compared to the same period in 2023.
